Intel Analysts Paint Dire Picture for Afghanistan, Make Six Month Prediction as Biden Retreats
The U.S. intelligence community predicted that the Afghanistan government could fall as soon as six months after the American military is fully withdrawn from the country.
President Joe Biden announced in April that all American troops will be withdrawn from Afghanistan on Sept. 11, The Washington Post reported.
American intelligence analysts and senior U.S. military officials said that Afghanistan’s government and its capital, Kabul, could fall between six and 12 months after American forces depart, according to The Wall Street Journal.
Other officials made an even more dire prediction that the government’s collapse could come as soon as three months after the U.S. removes its troops.
American intelligence agencies had previously been optimistic about the move, but hopes dwindled after the Taliban seized dozens of districts and cities in northern Afghanistan last week.
White House press secretary Jen Psaki defended the withdrawal plans even though Taliban attacks on Afghan forces have become more frequent.
“Had we not begun to draw down, violence would have increased against us as well,” she said Wednesday, referring to American troops in the region.
“So the status quo, in our view, was not an option.”
WSJ reported that White House officials considered slowing down the pace of withdrawal, but Biden decided to proceed as normal and close down the Bagram Air Base.
“It is a dynamic situation,” Pentagon press secretary John Kirby said Tuesday.
“If there need to be changes made to the pace or to the scope and scale of the retrograde on any given day or in any given week, we want to maintain the flexibility to do that.”
Biden met with Afghan President Ashraf Ghani on Friday and promised that the United States will stay committed to Afghanistan after the troops leave, but the future of the country is in its own hands, according to The Washington Post.
“Afghans are going to have to decide their future, what they want,” Biden said. “But it won’t be for lack of us being [a] help.”
The Post noted that tens of thousands of Afghan soldiers have died in the war against terrorism that will likely only worsen after American troops are withdrawn from the region.
Biden promised to help Afghanistan financially and rhetorically, leaving Afghan security forces to grapple with increased hostilities between the nation and the Taliban themselves.
“The senseless violence has to stop, but it’s going to be very difficult,” Biden said.
“But we’re going to stick with you and we’re going to do our best to see to it you have the tools you need.”
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